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OCTOBER 24, 2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

THIS JUST IN – FROM THE POLITICO:  President Barack Obama is campaigning to ensure that no one flees America because of a Donald Trump presidency, according to the White House.
During a gaggle with reporters Monday aboard Air Force One, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said Obama would “spend a significant amount of time” campaigning for Hillary Clinton and other Democrats down the ballot next week.  Earnest also was asked whether Obama would leave the country if Trump, a man he has said is unfit to succeed him, is elected president.  “He’s working very hard to make sure that nobody has to leave the country as a result of an electoral outcome that the president doesn’t support,” Earnest said.
Obama spoke at a Clinton fundraiser in California with about 350 guests earlier Monday. He called for Trump to get crushed on Election Day.  A perfect example of the adolescent quality of this administration.

WHY AM I NOT SHOCKED? – FROM DAILY CALLER:   A global warming research center at the London School of Economics got millions of dollars from UK taxpayers by taking credit for research it didn’t perform, an investigation by The Daily Mail revealed.  The UK government gave $11 million dollars to the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) in exchange for research that the organization reportedly never actually did.  Many papers CCCEP claimed to have published to get government money weren’t about global warming, were written before the organization was even founded, or were written by researchers unaffiliated with CCCEP. The government never checked CCCEP’s supposed publication lists, saying they were “taken on trust,” according to the report.  “It is serious misconduct to claim credit for a paper you haven’t supported, and it’s fraud to use that in a bid to renew a grant,” Professor Richard Tol, a climate economics expert from Sussex University whose research was reportedly stolen by CCCEP, told The Daily Mail. “I’ve never come across anything like it before. It stinks.”   When will we learn that many "scholars" are no more honest or ethical than anyone else? 

MORE ON THE WONDERS OF ACADEME – FROM FOX:   Left-wing students at the University of California, Berkeley are protesting again. This time, however, these students are calling for “safe spaces” for transgendered people, as well as “spaces of color” at the University (which they already have).  In video of the protest, the so-called anti-racism protesters were seen denying passage across the bridge to white students — shouting “go around” — while happily allowing students of color to pass through.  After blocking the bridge, the protesting students moved towards the front of campus to occupy the front of the student store, because they felt it interfered with their “safe spaces”.   I'm sure this will improve the lives of people of color all over the world.  Yeah, right.

October 24, 2016       Permalink

OH DEAR, NOT THIS – AT 10:41 A.M. ET:  I hate to see the name of the FBI dragged through the mud, but when Clinton interests are involved, how can it be otherwise?  From The Wall Street Journal: 

The political organization of Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, an influential Democrat with longstanding ties to Bill and Hillary Clinton, gave nearly $500,000 to the election campaign of the wife of an official at the Federal Bureau of Investigation who later helped oversee the investigation into Mrs. Clinton’s email use.

Campaign finance records show Mr. McAuliffe’s political-action committee donated $467,500 to the 2015 state Senate campaign of Dr. Jill McCabe, who is married to Andrew McCabe, now the deputy director of the FBI.

The Virginia Democratic Party, over which Mr. McAuliffe exerts considerable control, donated an additional $207,788 worth of support to Dr. McCabe’s campaign in the form of mailers, according to the records. That adds up to slightly more than $675,000 to her candidacy from entities either directly under Mr. McAuliffe’s control or strongly influenced by him. The figure represents more than a third of all the campaign funds Dr. McCabe raised in the effort.

Mr. McAuliffe and other state party leaders recruited Dr. McCabe to run, according to party officials. She lost the election to incumbent Republican Dick Black.

COMMENT:  The FBI has been stained this year.  It must be kept free of politics and political influence.  We depended on Director James Comey to do just that, but, considering his handling of the Hillary Clinton probe, I'm not sure he's come out very well.  I'd say a new director might be in order, but he, or she, would be appointed by the new president.  What a prospect.

October 24,  2016     Permalink

WE CAN'T WAIT – AT 10:08 A.M. ET:  For it to be over, that is.   What an awful election campaign this is.   Michael Barone calls it "the ugliest election," at the Washington Examiner: 

In last week's third and (thankfully) final presidential debate, each candidate did an excellent job of presenting convincing arguments why people shouldn't vote for the other.

Donald Trump called Hillary Clinton a felon and Hillary Clinton called Donald Trump a traitor. Unfortunately for America, there is plenty of basis for the former charge and less but still disturbing evidence for the latter.

These two may not be the most unpopular pair of major party presidential nominees in history. James Buchanan and John C. Fremont in 1856 may have been worse, at least to judge from their later feckless careers.

But of all the nominee pairs since random sampling polling was invented in 1935, Trump and Clinton certainly win the prize. Majorities of voters look negatively on both and consider each dishonest and untrustworthy. It's not hard to see why.

And...a new political era is about to begin:

A Bloomberg poll asked Republicans and Democrats which of several figures should be the face of their party nationally if their nominee loses. A plurality of Democrats, 32 percent, said Hillary Clinton and 6 percent Tim Kaine. But 31 percent said Bernie Sanders and 23 percent Elizabeth Warren.

Among Republicans, 24 percent said Donald Trump, far below the percentage supporting him against Clinton. But a total of 71 percent picked the more conventional conservative alternatives Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan and John Kasich.

That's a crude measure, but it provides an interesting hint of the politics that's just a couple of weeks ahead.

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  No one knows more about the statistics of American politics than Michael Barone. 

October 24, 2016        Permalink

POLLS – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:  All but three polls show Hillary Clinton with a lead of from 4 to 12 points.

The exceptions are the L.A. Times tracker, Rasmussen, and, most important, IBD/Tipp, which has the best track record in the last three presidential elections.  L.A. Times and IBD have flipped in the last few days from a narrow Trump lead to a razor-thin Clinton lead.  Ras still shows a two-point Trump lead.

Both Ras and IBD are now publishing advisories noting that they are not among the majority of polls.  I don't know if this is caution or bravado.  They may be saying, "Look, we could be wrong."  Or, they could be saying, "We're brave and we're right."

This is what IBD says: 

Unlike many other polls, the IBD/TIPP Poll continues to show a tightening race, as the candidates and their surrogates slug it out in public in the waning days until the Nov. 8 polling date.

In the latest Real Clear Politics average of recent polls, Clinton stands at 45.0% to Trump's 39.4%, a 5.6% advantage in the four-way contest. In a head-to-head matchup, Clinton takes 47.9% to Trump's 42.0%, a 5.9% difference.

Rasmussen puts it this way:

Rasmussen Reports is one of three national polls that still shows the race as competitive with two weeks to go; most others portray Clinton with a wide – and, in some cases, growing - lead.

COMMENT:  Who knows?   Polls in battleground states generally favor Clinton, who is now projected by some reputable services to get more than 300 electoral votes.  A candidate needs 270 to win.

But there are still two weeks to go.  The odds heavily favor Clinton, but a dramatic event could disrupt predictions.  If truth be told, dramatic events rarely happen.  The issue now is whether the bulk of the polls are accurate, or whether the three holdouts are seeing something that the others have missed.

October 24, 2016       Permalink

OCTOBER 23,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

(Editor's note: The "short take" entry originally published today reporting that Michelle Obama's mother
would receive a federal pension of $160,000 a year was determined to be based on a hoax, and has been taken down. Urgent Agenda regrets the original post. If we learn more about the hoax, we'll report it.)

THE MAGIC OF THE CUBBIES – FROM THE NEW YORK POST:   Chicago Cubs fans are looking to swap one golden ticket for another.  Diehard Cubbies followers are trying to swap tickets for the Chicago run of “Hamilton” for National League Playoff and World Series tickets.  Jim O’Hara told Chicago’s WBBM-TV he wants to swap four December “Hamilton” tickets for two Series seats. His wife hasn’t signed off on the plan yet.  “I have floated the idea,” O’Hara said. “She thinks we’re still going to ‘Hamilton.’”  The first direct challenge to "Hamilton" that I've seen.  The Cubs haven't won a World Series in more than a century, so the excitement is deserved. 

PARTY OF THE PEOPLE – OH YEAH? – FROM FOX:   HINDMAN, Ky. – Jim Justice, a coal billionaire running for West Virginia governor, owes millions in back taxes to some of Appalachia's most impoverished counties, including one in Kentucky that is struggling to pay the debt on a new rec center and has turned the lights off in its parks and reduced hot meals for senior citizens, according to tax records and government officials.  Many of these counties have been devastated by the collapse of the coal industry over the past few years, and their financial struggles are not all Justice's fault. But county officials say things would be a lot easier if he paid up.  "It's just absurd that a billionaire wouldn't pay his taxes," fellow Democrat Zach Weinberg, the top elected official in Kentucky's Knott County, said as he thumbed through a folder of Justice's debts.  Justice, who is leading in the polls, makes no apologies for the debt owed by some of his coal companies, saying he is doing everything he can to keep his businesses running and workers employed while other companies go under.  Isn't the law going after him?  Well, I guess that law doesn't apply to billionaire Democrats.  I guess they're excused under the "has a good heart" regulations.

October 23, 2016       Permalink

GET USED TO THIS – AT 12:30 P.M. ET:   She'll probably be president, so we should get used to the Hillary Clinton style.  The scandal doctor is in.  From London's Daily Mail: 

A stone-faced Hillary Clinton refused to comment on an email a top aide sent calling a Clinton Foundation quid pro quo a 'mess' of the former secretary of state's own making.

'I have nothing to say about Wikileaks, other than I think we should all be concerned about what the Russians are trying to do to our election and using Wikileaks very blatantly to try to influence the outcome of the election,' Clinton said on Saturday.

Didn't Clinton try a "reset" with these same Russkies when she was secretary of state?  How did that work out?

The Democratic nominee was responding to a question posed by DailyMail.com during a media availability with reporters riding on her campaign plane.

Hacked emails revealed an internal disagreement among Clinton's aides about her desire to hold a conference in Marrakech, Morocco.

The country's king made a $12 million pledge to fund the Clinton Global Initiative conference - but only if the the likely presidential candidate attended.

Top confidante Huma Abedin bluntly wrote in a January 2015 email that 'if HRC was not part of it, meeting was a non-starter.'

Then she warned: 'She created this mess and she knows it.'

It was an uncharacteristic remark from Abedin, who is known for her abiding loyalty to Clinton over the years.

COMMENT:  The press gave Obama a pass on almost everything.  The result is an egotistical president who really believes he's transformed the nation.  All he's left is a train wreck.

Will Clinton get the same kid-glove treatment?  Or will the press wise up?  My optimism is under control.

October 23, 2016       Permalink

THE TRUMP STRATEGY – AT 11:56 A.M. ET:  The Trump forces are not giving up, despite the smug predictions of the media and the fact that Trump has had an awful two weeks.  From Fox:

The Donald Trump campaign said Sunday that it plans major TV advertisements in its fight to the finish against Democratic rival Hillary Clinton -- bolstered by recent national and state polls.

"This race is not over,” Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway told “Fox News Sunday.” “Many in the media say it’s over. For the 12th time they’re counting Donald Trump out.”

Despite polls indicating that Clinton leads Trump in battleground states such as Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia, Conway argued each are within closing distance for Trump and that Clinton has failed to cross the key 50-percent threshold in any of them, despite outspending the Trump campaign by millions.

"She’s still under 50 everywhere and she’s spent $66 million in ads, mostly negative … personal destruction ads against Donald Trump just in September,” Conway said. “So, with all that on the field, we’re just starting to increase some of our investments on the air.”

Conway said the campaign’s path to victory still includes Florida, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina and possibly Nevada while securing traditionally Republican states Arizona and Georgia.

She also argued that races in still-contested states “can turn around in the next two weeks,” before Election Day on Nov. 8.

COMMENT:  Kellyanne is excellent and experienced.  Her problem is her candidate.  This could have easily been a major Republican year, but the party blew it, and knows it.

October 23,  2016     Permalink

WEIRD – AT 11:31 A.M. ET:  According to the mainstreamers, the election is over and Donald Trump has been deported.  But it's a strange thing – some very respected polls tell a very different story.  From IBD: 

The IBD/TIPP poll — a collaboration between Investor's Business Daily (IBD) and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (TIPP) — has been the most accurate poll in recent presidential elections.

Day 5 Results: Oct. 23:

Trump Up 2 Points Nationwide, While Clinton Campaigns As If The Race Is Already Won — IBD/TIPP Poll

                   Clinton    Trump  Johnson  Stein  Other   Not sure
OVERALL:   40.8%    42.6%    7.2%    3.3%    1.9%    4.2%

COMMENT:  We must stress that this poll is an outlier, and yet has an excellent record of accuracy.  Both Rasmussen and the Los Angeles Times also have the race as very close, and must also be considered outliers.

The RealClearPolitics average of polls, as of this morning, has Clinton up about six.  It also shows the Dems picking up four seats in the U.S. Senate, which would be enough to capture the Senate if a Democratic vice president, acting as president of the Senate, breaks ties.

October 23, 2016       Permalink